Even after their limits, the latest Important Analytics gives the top offered investigation in which in order to imagine the newest federal divorce or separation rate in the 1990. S. Census Agency teams indicates that marital incidents research regarding ACS and you can You.S. Important Statistics (including the DRA take to) bride Vale was similar ( Elliott ainsi que al., 2010). Quotes to get more recent years aren’t you’ll as the federal authorities discontinued the newest line of essential analytics to your marriage ceremonies and you may divorces at the county top during the 1996.
So as that our results are sturdy, i performed an extra investigation of the limiting the fresh 2010 ACS research to only brand new DRA try claims by which age from the time of divorce or separation are said when you look at the 1990. The outcome from this supplemental study are practically same as the individuals according to the whole country, indicating that the increase in the fresh separation and divorce speed isn’t an artifact away from and additionally ACS data out of all says.
Analytical Method
Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>
R esults
While the revealed into the Contour step 1, new breakup speed provides doubled because the 1990, rising off cuatro.9 in order to 10.step 1 divorced individuals for each step one,000 hitched people. This trend belies the general trend throughout the U.S. divorce rates during this period, which had been fundamentally apartment at 19.0 within the 1990 and you may 17.9 this current year (influence not shown). The newest doubling of your own rates off breakup among middle-aged and you may older adults results in a hefty rise in the new number of people aged fifty and you can earlier just who sense split up. Into the 1990, as much as 206,007 anybody aged 50 and you may earlier had separated, whereas this season on the 643,152 got separated. To contextualize so it pattern, envision you to fewer than one in 10 people just who divorced within the 1990 try aged fifty and you will old weighed against more than step 1 from inside the cuatro today (influence maybe not revealed). Also, incase the latest separation and divorce speed stays ongoing across the next two decades-a conventional assumption in line with the latest pattern-the number of people aged 50 and you may older that would sense breakup in the 2030 carry out increase because of the 1 / 3rd so you can more than 828,380 (authors’ calculation predicated on decades-specific projected population types into the 2030 [ U.S. Census Agency, 2004]), reflecting the brand new increasing development in the newest older adult population which can occur over the next two decades.